FULLY REPORTING
North Carolina · 2026 general election

NC Early Vote Model

Every accepted 2026 ballot, read in 2024 terms: how the people who have voted so far most likely voted for president in 2024.

2026 ballots accepted so far, as they voted in 2024

Who has voted so far

Each bar is a group's 2024 margin (Harris minus Trump, two-party) among people whose 2026 ballot has been accepted. Counts are below each label. Gray ticks show the same group among all 2024 voters, where available.

New voters

Day by day

The 2024 lean of all accepted ballots, counted up to each day.

Would it have worked in 2022?

The 2022 early vote, replayed

The 2020 lean of accepted early ballots as they came in (line), against the 2022 early-vote result (dashed).

By voting method

Hidden-precinct test (2024)

How the model works, in plain English